According to the forecasts of IMS Research, Japan will install this year solar power systems over 5GW, which will lead at a 120% increase compared to 2012. Bloomberg New Energy Finance anticipates an increase in the installed capacity of PV in only 6,1 GW to 9,4 GW in the year, surpassing earlier forecasts 3,2 GW-4GW.
This increase seems to be triggered mainly by the presence of feed-in tariffs. “The feed-in tariffs in Japan are by far the most attractive worldwide – probably too generous – something that could lead to ‘overheat’ the market,” warns on a written statement the director of IMS Let Sarma. “Although the main industry players expect a reduction of 10%, this will hardly affect the internal rates of return and the market demand.”
The report from IMS forecasts that up to one quarter of the new power plant will be more than 2MW. For 2014, it expects a smaller number of large projects, mainly due to lack of suitable premises.
The optimistic forecasts are associated with the efforts of Japan to turn to alternative energy sources following the earthquake and tsunami of 2011 that triggered the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. The accident led to sleep almost all reactors, from which the country accounted for almost one third of its energy needs. The government of Shinzō Abe in favor of reopening the reactors after imposing new safety standards, which are expected to announce an independent panel of experts in July.